CHRISTIE YACHTS’ MARKET FORECAST
By Will Christie, Christie Yachts Founder
Christie Yachts called the market for the first half of 2023. With price reductions and lower trade volumes, the market appears to be splitting into two segments. See our predictions for the rest of the year ahead.
In January, Superyacht News ran an article with my predictions for the market for the year ahead. I said at that time “Some lower quality and older yachts have been coming to the market with unrealistically high asking prices, perhaps reflecting the bull market that we enjoyed in 2021-early 2022. We are now starting to see a few price reductions for those sorts of yachts that we rarely saw back then… I see the price curve for those yachts gently falling this year. My main prediction however is that trade volumes will be down as a whole this year, due to restricted supply.”
Looking at analysis we have had conducted by Vessels Value, an independent firm that tracks the market and uses algorithms and market data to value yachts, it appears that my prediction was indeed correct, and I see more of the same for the second half of the year. The market appears to be splitting into two – newer, high quality yachts, those are in very good condition or unique in some way and a second group of lower quality, older and mass production GRP boats.
The graph below clearly shows an upwards trend in price reductions since the last part of the year, while overall sales are down. The price reductions that we have seen have mostly been concentrated in that second group of lower quality, older and mass production GRP boats, while overall sales are down both due to slightly lower demand, but more notably a real dearth of supply. This is due to shipyard prices going up at inflation busting levels which in turn has resulted in owners being reluctant to sell their yachts – many are simply electing to keep their existing boats as upgrading to a new yacht is now often too costly in both financial and time terms.
The first half of this year has seen some very strong sales of some relatively new and larger North European yachts. The prices achieved for these yachts have been impressive and reflect the very inflated prices now at shipyards. Buyers for high quality brokerage yachts are clearly noting that while they might be paying sellers a “premium”, it is still a big discount to the replacement cost of building an entirely new yacht, never mind the time saving of construction given that new build delivery times are still 3-4 years.
I predict that this “split” in the market will continue. There will certainly be some good deals for buyers later this year if they know where to look, while owners of high quality yachts or those that are special in some way can still probably hold a bit firmer. In 2021, it was undoubtedly a seller’s market for the first time since 2008. It seems that we now are starting to revert back to a normal state of play.
WHAT MAKES CHRISTIE YACHTS DIFFERENT?
Christie Yachts prides itself in giving independent, impartial and informed advice to both buyers and sellers in what can be an opaque market. It is easy to tell clients what they want to hear, but we believe it our job to advise and provide experienced opinion so that clients are best placed to make informed decisions. For an independent view and advice on how best to approach the purchase or sale of a yacht, please do get in contact.
